Future Scenarios

In the fall of 2009, five scenarios were vetted at several convenings. Four of the scenarios for health care in 2020 were developed by the Institute for the Future, an independent, nonprofit research group based in Palo Alto, Calif., and the fifth was developed by Microsoft. They are intended to help the ministry consider technological, societal and generational aspects of the future so that Vision 2020 can ultimately focus work on a preferred future that has plausible aspects.

The forecasts, which are available for review, include:

• Discipline
• Transformation
• Growth
• Collapse
• Technology