Scenarios — Collapse
A series of social and natural disasters are layered on top of the persistent struggling economy. The numbers of people needing care, especially those displaced populations, swelled — as the country’s ability to care for them became even more limited. Increased vector-borne diseases and infectious strains amplified by global warming and environmental degradation have sharply increased the demand for care. To make matters worse, the accumulated effects of delayed care through the great recession are finally coming due; poor nutrition, heart problems and delayed dental care are all exacerbating the effects of infectious diseases. The public and private health infrastructure proves insufficiently resilient to respond effectively to these multiple demands and some parts begin to give way under the strain. Health and disaster spending gobble up 40% of the GDP. Among the bright spots in this dark picture is the ingenuity and resourcefulness shown by local communities. While the resource-rich build enclaves of safety and health, an ever-growing number of people are challenged to find the basic necessities of health. Organizations must deal with disruptions at all levels — from shaky supplies of basic resources to quarantined workforces — with such frequency that it has become almost routine. The wave of consolidation of health care services leaves them strapped at best in the face of collapse.
> View the scenario video
Questions to consider as you view the video
Is the Collapse Scenario plausible?
To what degree do you believe each of the scenario characteristics are plausible?
- Percentage of GDP grows from 17% to 22%.
- Health and Disaster Spending skyrockets from 17% to 40%.
- Preventable deaths due to lack of insurance increases from 23,000 to 82,000.
- A series of natural and social disasters.
- Increased vector-borne diseases and infectious strains amplified by global warming and environmental degradation.
- Very disparate systems of care — the haves and have-nots.
- Pressures lead to a wave of consolidation of healthcare providers leaving few options for the needy.